Iowa and Beyond: Republicans

(Photo from the Boston Globe)

In a race that has rarely seen any hope for the Republicans, hope is slowly starting to emerge in the most unlikely of candidates. Maybe it was just a matter of time before the Republicans stopped sitting around giggling about nominating an evangelical candidate as a serious choice and just did it.

Mike Huckabee came out with a strong win at the caucus. His speech afterwards should be watched by all, it shows a dangerous side to Huckabee.


The big surprise (and a happy one for me) was really how bad Romney did. Romney took a big lickin’ at the hands of Huckabee, showing further the evangelicals of the Republican party uncertainty over a Mormon Bishop.

Another pleasant surprise was just how bad Giuliani did in Iowa. After the caucus, CNN had Rudy describing his 50 state plan. My thoughts: we won’t be seeing Giuliani much longer, he was a bad mayor for New York City and the country will soon know what New York has known for a long time. Giuliani is bad news.

Expectations for the Republicans: New Hampshire will be a big test for the Republicans. I don’t expect to see Huckabee placing first in the Granite State, but he doesn’t need to either. The mainline establishment of New Hampshire isn’t going to be interested for the time being in a southern Baptist minister. The real tension is how Romney will do. If Romney does not win, it really is over for him. It’ll put to bed the question of America’s acceptance of Mormonism as a mainstrem Religion, and will put to bed any doubt just how sleazy Mitt Romney really is. Expect big numbers from John McCain, who is feeling mini-surges all around the country.

My prediction is Romney, McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani. Romney will live to Super Tuesday, but not much further.

Memorable Quote: “If Huckabee scares the Republican establishment and makes the party fear losing, you could see a rapid rallying around a second candidate.” -Republican Strategist Donald Warfield to the NY Times.

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